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SPC Forecast Products
SPC May 18, 2012 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NEB SSWWD INTO WRN OK AND VICINITY... ...SYNOPSIS... A WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WEAKENING WITH TIME AS ENCOUNTERS LONGER-WAVELENGTH ERN U.S. RIDGING. MEANWHILE WITHIN THE ERN U.S. RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED INVOF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IS FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD. ...KS/OK AND VICINITY... AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A MODESTLY MOIST/HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN WARM SECTOR MIXED-LAYER CAPE RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THOUGH CAPPING SHOULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...LATER AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IS EXPECTED -- INITIALLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER PROBABILITY RISK AREA OF MN/ERN SD AND THEN SWD WITH TIME ACROSS ERN NEB/CENTRAL KS/WRN OK. WITH 40-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS SPREADING ACROSS THE SERN NEB/KS/OK WARM SECTOR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EJECTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ASSUMING AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THUS...A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY THE RELATIVELY DRY/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO EXIST. THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STORMS BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. ..GOSS.. 05/18/2012Read more
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri May 18 17:29:02 UTC 2012
No watches are valid as of Fri May 18 17:29:02 UTC 2012.
MD 0830 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NERN UT...NWRN CO AND SWRN WY
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN UT...NWRN CO AND SWRN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181705Z - 181900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN UT...NWRN CO INTO SWRN WY WILL
POST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN WY
SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN UT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN
ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WITH NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TO AOB 500 J/KG PROVIDING A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE STORM THREAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH INCREASINGLY LARGE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 41980726 40510787 39490957 40041098 41660987 42440804
41980726
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MD 0829 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR S FL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...S FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 181703Z - 181830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS S FL THIS
AFTERNOON. WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM.
DISCUSSION...MID-DAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 80S ACROSS S FL. THIS HEATING IS AIDING IN STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. AS A
RESULT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
FEW HRS. MODIFIED 12Z MFL RAOB FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE
MID/UPR 80S AND DEWPOINT IN THE LOW 70S YIELDS MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
2500 J/KG. THE STRONG BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SPEEDS /PER AMX VWP/ WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 26618141 26808081 26738000 25298035 25208114 26098165
26618141
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... NO CHANGES REQUIRED. ..LEITMAN.. 05/18/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0353 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012/ ...SYNOPSIS... IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS...A COMPOSITE TROUGH...INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THE COMPOSITE TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN ITS BASE LIFTS NEWD. A ZONE OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHILE LYING GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF ITS AXIS. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN STATES AND GREAT BASIN...AND DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES...WHILE A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SERN STATES. ...PORTIONS OF W TX...ERN/SRN NM... TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE...AND TO THE SOUTH OF A SWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN CORRESPONDENCE WITH SFC TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO THE 90S. SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED. WHILE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING ZONE OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVE WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IN MANY AREAS...AND FUEL GREEN-UP ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS...WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE BEING INCLUDED. ALSO OF NOTE...AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SWD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NNWLY TO NELY AND INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL...AND RH VALUES RISE TO ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...Read more